EURGBP SIGNAL 21-02-2023 : EURGBP prints three-day downtrend below 0.8900 ahead of key EU/UK data.


EURGBP SIGNAL 21-02-2023 : EURGBP prints three-day downtrend below 0.8900 ahead of key EU/UK data.

  • EUR/GBP retreats from intraday high to extend Friday’s U-turn from two-week high.
  • Full market’s return, cautious mood probe Euro bulls ahead of Eurozone ZEW Sentiment data, monthly PMI.
  • The British Pound braces for UK PMI amid mixed concerns surrounding Brexit.

EURGBP SIGNAL : EURGBP holds lower ground around 0.8870, after recently reversing from the daily top, as bears keep the reins for the third consecutive day to early Tuesday in Europe. In doing so, the cross-currency pair portrays the broad retreat in the Euro, as well as the recovery in the British Pound (GBP), ahead of the key data for the bloc and Britain.

That said, a fresh run-up in the US Treasury bond yields, and the fears emanating from China, North Korea and Russia seemed to have underpinned the market’s rush for the US Dollar as traders from Washington return after a long weekend. As a result, the Euro witnesses a pullback in the demand due to its contrast with the greenback.

It’s worth noting that the recent statistics from the Euro area have been firmer while those from the UK have been mixed, which in turn keeps the pair buyers hopeful ahead of the key numbers. Additionally teasing the EUR/GBP buyers are the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) official. That said, ECB governing council member and Finnish central bank Chief Olli Rehn recently said, per Reuters, “ECB should keep raising interest rates beyond March and the rate peak, which should be stuck to for some time, could be reached over the summer.”

EURGBP SIGNAL : On the same line, upbeat prints of Eurozone Consumer Confidence matched the market forecasts of -19 versus -20.9 prior. Further, Germany’s Bundesbank released its monthly report and noted that the economic outlook was somewhat brighter with the short-term outlook turning more favorable than seen just a few months ago.

Alternatively, fears of no imminent Brexit deal should have weighed on the British Pound (GBP) as the UK’s Conservative Members of the Parliament (MPs) dislike the deal with the European Union (EU) on Northern Ireland (NI). Some of them are threatening to resign, per The Times, amid fears of the compromised deal. The news also mentioned that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spent notable time in the House of Commons to convince the MPs that no deal had yet been agreed and talks were continuing. He was told he ‘hasn’t got a hope’ of succeeding without the support of the Democratic Unionist Party, per The Times.

Amid these plays, stock futures are down and the Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar, are firmer, which in turn weigh on the Euro amid a sluggish start to the key day.

EURGBP SIGNAL : Looking forward, Eurozone ZEW sentiment figures for February will precede the preliminary readings of the bloc’s, as well as the UK’s, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the said month to direct short-term pair moves. Given the cross-currency pair’s latest retreat, backed by the market speculations that the Euro rally is about to end amid the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inability to offer higher rates, the sellers may keep the reins unless the scheduled data mark any surprise.

Technical analysis

EUR/GBP fades bounce off the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 0.8815 by the press time, which in turn joins bearish MACD signals and failure to cross the 0.8915-10 horizontal hurdle to keep bears hopeful.

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