USDCAD SIGNAL 19-01-2023 : USDCAD holds steady around 1.3500, struggles to find acceptance above 100-day SMA.


USDCAD SIGNAL 19-01-2023 : USDCAD holds steady around 1.3500, struggles to find acceptance above 100-day SMA.

  • USD/CAD hits a nearly two-week high on Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through.
  • Retreating crude oil prices undermines the Loonie and lends support to the major.
  • Falling US bond yields keep the USD bulls on the defensive and act as a headwind.

USDCAD SIGNAL : The USDCAD pair adds to the overnight strong gains and edges higher for the second successive day on Thursday. Spot prices touch a one-and-half-week high during the Asian session, albeit seem to struggle to find acceptance above the 1.3500 psychological mark or build on the momentum beyond the 100-day SMA.

A further pullback in crude oil prices, from the highest level since December 5 touched on Wednesday,  undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USDCAD pair. Investors remain concerned about the fuel demand outlook amid growing worries about a deeper global economic downturn. Adding to this, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) signalled another big weekly build in US crude inventories and exerts pressure on the black liquid.

USDCAD SIGNAL : The US Dollar, on the other hand, is weighed down by the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, is holding back bulls from placing aggressive bets around the USD/CAD pair. In fact, the yield on the rate-sensitive two-year US government bond drops to its lowest level since October amid expectations for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. The bets were further lifted by weaker-than-expected US macroeconomic released on Wednesday.

That said, several FOMC members indicated on Wednesday that they will push on with more interest rate hikes even as inflation shows signs of easing and economic activity is slowing. Apart from this, looming recession fears temper investors’ appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a softer tone around the equity markets, which is seen benefitting the safe-haven greenback and supports prospects for a further appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and housing market data. This, along with speeches by Fed officials, the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, might influence the USD demand later this Thursday. Apart from this, traders will take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.

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